Nice day in the market- until the final 15 minutes! This market loves to dive right before close. Dow ended down 76 points but was positive for most of the day as the FED, as expected, cut the federal funds rate a half a point to 1%.
Watch list-
CHK $20.65
X $35.37
AA $11.15
FAF announces earnings tomorrow.
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
CA Median Home Prices down 47% from peak
The speed and depth of the drop in CA real estate is simply amazing. These declines have occurred in roughly 18 months! I expect values to drop further as foreclosures continue to rise and banks refuse to lend to all but to the best customer (with large down payments). The next year will be interesting especially as the ALT A paper starts to default.
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Huge rally!
More EXTREME volatitlity today as the market gained almost 900 points for the 2nd largest point gain ever. Dow closed at over 9000. S&P was up almost 11%.
Out of 20 trading days this month, there have been only two that didn't see the Dow close up or down in triple digits.
The market is expecting the fed to cut rates again tommorrow. The market looked past the news of the consumer confidence index recording a record low.
CAKE was down 4.5% to close at $7.99. Looks like I tried to catch a falling knife on that one and its about to cut off my hand. 20% haircut in roughly 2 weeks.
Out of 20 trading days this month, there have been only two that didn't see the Dow close up or down in triple digits.
The market is expecting the fed to cut rates again tommorrow. The market looked past the news of the consumer confidence index recording a record low.
CAKE was down 4.5% to close at $7.99. Looks like I tried to catch a falling knife on that one and its about to cut off my hand. 20% haircut in roughly 2 weeks.
Monday, October 27, 2008
Another 200 point drop
Just another day. Panic selling continues. Valuations have been thrown out the window. Dividend yields are getting high.
GE- $17.7. 7% yield. PE 8.7
X- $30.82. PE 3
AA- $9.04. 7.2% yield. PE 4.28
CAT- $31.90. 5% yield. PE 5.4
BBY- $21.50. PE 6.8
Exxon- $66. PE 8.18
AXP- $23. PE 8.18
MOS- $26.50. PE 3.99
POT- $63.88. PE 6.67
GS- $92.88. PE 5.58
HTE- $7.69. 37.2% yield!
I will probaly look back at this post in the future and will not believe how cheap these stocks are right now.
When you go to the supermarket and see that Pepsi is on sale for 20% off, do you think to yourself, heck I'm not going to buy Pepsi again until they raise the price? The stock market is not different.
When you hear, the stock market is at a new high, that is a time to sell. If you hear the stock market is down 30%, that is the time to buy.
GE- $17.7. 7% yield. PE 8.7
X- $30.82. PE 3
AA- $9.04. 7.2% yield. PE 4.28
CAT- $31.90. 5% yield. PE 5.4
BBY- $21.50. PE 6.8
Exxon- $66. PE 8.18
AXP- $23. PE 8.18
MOS- $26.50. PE 3.99
POT- $63.88. PE 6.67
GS- $92.88. PE 5.58
HTE- $7.69. 37.2% yield!
I will probaly look back at this post in the future and will not believe how cheap these stocks are right now.
When you go to the supermarket and see that Pepsi is on sale for 20% off, do you think to yourself, heck I'm not going to buy Pepsi again until they raise the price? The stock market is not different.
When you hear, the stock market is at a new high, that is a time to sell. If you hear the stock market is down 30%, that is the time to buy.
Sunday, October 26, 2008
Showdown in Sac Town= Letdown
Well, I got back from the contest today. It was a very disappointing showing for me. Weighed in at roughly 216. My nerves were definetly kicking in.
Yoke/ power stair- did ok on the Yoke. Dropped it once but quickly recovered. Tried to load the first power stair (350) and it was heavy! Was able to finally get it on the platform. Switched my grip to over/ under and the second one went easier. The third one went also. Ran back down the stairs to hit the 400 lb implement. No go. This was really heavy. Finished mid pack on this one. Was pretty disappointed.
Overhead medley- started with the Axl- went right up. Ran over to the keg (175)- could not lock it out. Fuk! Tried it again- nope. Ran over to the 120 "dumblog"- got it. Went back to the keg for one more try. Nope. Finished towards the bottom on this one. If I had gotten the keg, I would have finished 3rd or 4th (like my plan going into this event). I was VERY disappointed after this event.
Deadlift- 455 axl- was still upset after the 2 previous events but know I still could win this event. Firts rep- slipped out of my hand at lockout- no rep. Fuk!. 2nd rep- same thing. Re-chalked and got into the groove. Hit 7-8 in a row. More chalk. Hit a couple more. Thought I had 11 (and tied for 1st so far). Went for one more to win- couldn't lock it. No rep. Learned that they did not give me one of the reps. Gave me 10. Terrible! I hit an easy 11 in training with more weight. I think 13 or 14 won it. This contest is turning into a disaster.
Prowler/ Farmers medley- my 2nd best event (I thought). Ran against my training partner Scott who I was beating in training. Prowler is allot different then the truck push we were doing. I was not that fast. I had my arms extended on the prowler - even though I know I should have them bent Got to the farmers and picked it up- slipped out of my hands! I looked at my hand and had ripped a callous. Memories of Fresno Pro Am were flying through my head. I re-chalked, gripped it and fought all my might to finish the 50 ft. I had a bad time, but I finished it with the ripped callous. I guess this could be a moral victory.
Last event (thank god)- Fingal finger/ load medley. I was very tired going into this and just wanted the contest to be over. It was now around 4 and the contest had started at 10:30 (I had been out there since 9am). It was also very hot and sunny all day. I felt physically nauseous. First load was a fire hydrant- messed u a bit but quickly recovered and load. Ran to 1st finger and it went up easily. 2nd load was around a 300ish keg- went up easily (the platforms were short barrels). 2nd finger went up also. 3rd load was a 250ish sand bag. Not too much of a problem. On to the last finger. This was heavy. Fought with it to get it halfway up. My legs and arms gave in and I dropped it.
Finished 5th overall out of 10? Sean finished 2nd (by 1.2 point). Scott also finished 2nd. The 4 guys that beat me- really beat me. It was not close.
Things that I learned-
1) I am way way way to hard on myself. When things start going bad, I shell up and have a terrible attitude. I need to lighten up a little.
2) I don't carry enough size to compete with the better 231's. I was giving up 15-20 lbs.
3)My upper body strength is lacking. No excuse for not being able to hit a 175 keg (or a 260 log for that matter) on my worst day!
4)I have not been training hard enough on Saturdays. Both my partners told me this.
So now I have 3 choices-
1)give up on strongman and move on to other things.
2)continue as I have been going and be ready for mid-pack placings.
3)Use this as a wake up call for my training and workouts.
I sit here and am not sure which choice I will make.
God I want this month to end.
Yoke/ power stair- did ok on the Yoke. Dropped it once but quickly recovered. Tried to load the first power stair (350) and it was heavy! Was able to finally get it on the platform. Switched my grip to over/ under and the second one went easier. The third one went also. Ran back down the stairs to hit the 400 lb implement. No go. This was really heavy. Finished mid pack on this one. Was pretty disappointed.
Overhead medley- started with the Axl- went right up. Ran over to the keg (175)- could not lock it out. Fuk! Tried it again- nope. Ran over to the 120 "dumblog"- got it. Went back to the keg for one more try. Nope. Finished towards the bottom on this one. If I had gotten the keg, I would have finished 3rd or 4th (like my plan going into this event). I was VERY disappointed after this event.
Deadlift- 455 axl- was still upset after the 2 previous events but know I still could win this event. Firts rep- slipped out of my hand at lockout- no rep. Fuk!. 2nd rep- same thing. Re-chalked and got into the groove. Hit 7-8 in a row. More chalk. Hit a couple more. Thought I had 11 (and tied for 1st so far). Went for one more to win- couldn't lock it. No rep. Learned that they did not give me one of the reps. Gave me 10. Terrible! I hit an easy 11 in training with more weight. I think 13 or 14 won it. This contest is turning into a disaster.
Prowler/ Farmers medley- my 2nd best event (I thought). Ran against my training partner Scott who I was beating in training. Prowler is allot different then the truck push we were doing. I was not that fast. I had my arms extended on the prowler - even though I know I should have them bent Got to the farmers and picked it up- slipped out of my hands! I looked at my hand and had ripped a callous. Memories of Fresno Pro Am were flying through my head. I re-chalked, gripped it and fought all my might to finish the 50 ft. I had a bad time, but I finished it with the ripped callous. I guess this could be a moral victory.
Last event (thank god)- Fingal finger/ load medley. I was very tired going into this and just wanted the contest to be over. It was now around 4 and the contest had started at 10:30 (I had been out there since 9am). It was also very hot and sunny all day. I felt physically nauseous. First load was a fire hydrant- messed u a bit but quickly recovered and load. Ran to 1st finger and it went up easily. 2nd load was around a 300ish keg- went up easily (the platforms were short barrels). 2nd finger went up also. 3rd load was a 250ish sand bag. Not too much of a problem. On to the last finger. This was heavy. Fought with it to get it halfway up. My legs and arms gave in and I dropped it.
Finished 5th overall out of 10? Sean finished 2nd (by 1.2 point). Scott also finished 2nd. The 4 guys that beat me- really beat me. It was not close.
Things that I learned-
1) I am way way way to hard on myself. When things start going bad, I shell up and have a terrible attitude. I need to lighten up a little.
2) I don't carry enough size to compete with the better 231's. I was giving up 15-20 lbs.
3)My upper body strength is lacking. No excuse for not being able to hit a 175 keg (or a 260 log for that matter) on my worst day!
4)I have not been training hard enough on Saturdays. Both my partners told me this.
So now I have 3 choices-
1)give up on strongman and move on to other things.
2)continue as I have been going and be ready for mid-pack placings.
3)Use this as a wake up call for my training and workouts.
I sit here and am not sure which choice I will make.
God I want this month to end.
Thursday, October 23, 2008
FAF hits new lows
FAF was off $2.78 (over 13% to close at a new 52 week low of $18.29. It was down over 20% before a late afternoon "rally".
The entire Title segment got destroyed as Fidelity announced a huge 3rd quarter loss after setting aside $261.6 million in reserves. They also cut their dividend in half, announced 1,000 job cuts, and an across the board 10% pay cut.
Shares of other title insurers fell Thursday to their lowest levels since at least 2000.
The carnage- Land America down $3.23, or 26.3 percent, to $9.07, and Stewart Information Services Corp down $3.34, or 18.3 percent, to $14.96.
FNF closed down 58 cents, or 6.4 percent, at $8.44.
The market was down for most of the day (traded in 550 range) before a late afternoon rally and closed up 172 points.
The entire Title segment got destroyed as Fidelity announced a huge 3rd quarter loss after setting aside $261.6 million in reserves. They also cut their dividend in half, announced 1,000 job cuts, and an across the board 10% pay cut.
Shares of other title insurers fell Thursday to their lowest levels since at least 2000.
The carnage- Land America down $3.23, or 26.3 percent, to $9.07, and Stewart Information Services Corp down $3.34, or 18.3 percent, to $14.96.
FNF closed down 58 cents, or 6.4 percent, at $8.44.
The market was down for most of the day (traded in 550 range) before a late afternoon rally and closed up 172 points.
Greenspan speaks
Alan Greenspan testified on Capital Hill today. He denied blame for the crisis but but conceded the meltdown had revealed a flaw in a lifetime of economic thinking and left him in a "state of shocked disbelief."
He called the crisis a "once-in-a-century credit tsunami". He also warned that things would get worse before they get better, with rising unemployment and no stabilization in housing prices for "many months".
It was his policy of artificially low interest rates that led to the speculative bubble.
He called the crisis a "once-in-a-century credit tsunami". He also warned that things would get worse before they get better, with rising unemployment and no stabilization in housing prices for "many months".
It was his policy of artificially low interest rates that led to the speculative bubble.
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
CAKE and C downgraded
And the hits keep on coming! These stocks have been destroyed. Where is the mercy rule?? CAKE does not have any toxic mortgages on it's balance sheet!
CAKE dropped over 6% on an analyst downgrade to close at $9.82.
Cown & Co. analyst Paul Westra cut his rating to "Neutral" from "Outperform" and said the stock will probably trade "in line with the market over the next six months.
They announce earnings on Thursday.
C also dropped a little over 6% on a Goldman Sachs downgrade to close at $14.18.
Goldman analyst reversed his call from a month ago, when he upgraded Citi to "Neutral," and removed it from his "Conviction Sell List," a group of stocks the investment bank advises against holding.
"We believe it will be difficult for Citi to generate profitability over the next 12 months as additional write-downs, lower levels of capital markets activity, and further deterioration in credit quality trends will continue to weigh on the firm's operating results and capital ratios," Tanona wrote in a note to clients Tuesday.
They also slashed their price target on the shares by half, to $11, from the $22 they set last month.
The analyst also recommended buying Morgan Stanley and shorting Citi.
The market closed down 230 points (2.5%). S&P down 3%. NASDAQ down 4%.
CAKE dropped over 6% on an analyst downgrade to close at $9.82.
Cown & Co. analyst Paul Westra cut his rating to "Neutral" from "Outperform" and said the stock will probably trade "in line with the market over the next six months.
They announce earnings on Thursday.
C also dropped a little over 6% on a Goldman Sachs downgrade to close at $14.18.
Goldman analyst reversed his call from a month ago, when he upgraded Citi to "Neutral," and removed it from his "Conviction Sell List," a group of stocks the investment bank advises against holding.
"We believe it will be difficult for Citi to generate profitability over the next 12 months as additional write-downs, lower levels of capital markets activity, and further deterioration in credit quality trends will continue to weigh on the firm's operating results and capital ratios," Tanona wrote in a note to clients Tuesday.
They also slashed their price target on the shares by half, to $11, from the $22 they set last month.
The analyst also recommended buying Morgan Stanley and shorting Citi.
The market closed down 230 points (2.5%). S&P down 3%. NASDAQ down 4%.
Monday, October 20, 2008
+413 points
Nice day in the market. Closed above 9000 (9265).
Did we hit the bottom last week on Oct 10?
AMEX announced earnings tonight and beat estimates. Their profit did drop more then 20% (but we all know that does not matter- it's already priced in).
Did we hit the bottom last week on Oct 10?
AMEX announced earnings tonight and beat estimates. Their profit did drop more then 20% (but we all know that does not matter- it's already priced in).
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