Monday, December 1, 2008

7th Worse Drop in History and we are in an official recession

After 5 consecutive up days, the market fell of a cliff closing down 680 points (-7.7%), to close at 8149. The S&P did even worse and fell 9%.. 9%!!!!

This wiped out 50% of last weeks rally.

Financials got absolutley hammered once again. The financial ETF was down 17%.

The news and headlines are just one terrible story after another. There is no good news:
- government announced we have been in a recession since Dec 2007. Wow, shocking news!

FUK, I have already lost $100k this year. I have not and will not look at my individual holdings.

Thursday, November 20, 2008

Apocalypse Now

Major collapse in the markets the past 2 days. Down 12% in 2 days after today's 444 point disaster to close at 7,552.

S&P 500 is at an 11 1/2 year low. It is down over 50% from its high a year ago. The bull market of 2002-2007 has been evaporated.

All of my positions have been obliterated.

Citi is on the verge of going under and has lost 50% the past 2 days to close at $4.71.

Nobody has any idea of how much lower the market will go.

Tuesday, November 18, 2008

Caught the falling knife

Well, made a mistake on this one.

Written October 15-
I pulled the trigger on CAKE late this afternoon right before the market closed. Hopefully I did not try to catch a falling knife. Time will tell.

500 shares @ $9.98.

CAKE is down 35% since my buy point and closed at $6.48 today.

SHLD is down 50% since my sell recommendation I posted on October 16-
SHLD continues to falter. It did not participate in todays rally and is expensive with a P/E of 18.55. Closed at $60.87. I do not have confidence in this stock/ company and should sell. I believe it drops further from here.

It was down another 10% today to close at $30.19.

The only place safe for my money is under the mattress.

Wednesday, November 12, 2008

3rd straight decline.

Ouch. Where to start?

Market closed down 410 points to closes at 8282.

C down over 10% to close in single digits at $9.64. It's down 57% since the bailout was announced on Oct 3.

American Express Co. is seeking about $3.5 billion from the government to help boost its balance sheet. Down $2.35 (-10 1/2 %) to close at $20.25.

GE has secured the temporary backing of the FDIC for up to $139 billion of the debt of its finance arm.

GE shares closed down $1.52( -8.5%) at $16.29 to close at an 11 year low.

SHLD down over 10 1/2% to close at $44.88. I should have followed through with my recommendation a few weeks ago and sold.

This is getting scary now. I think the market closes below 8000 over the next week (maybe tomorrow).

Friday, November 7, 2008

Jobless Rate at 14 year high

The Labor department announced the unemployment rate hit 6.5% in October as another 240,00 jobs were lost. Unemployment is now higher then the last recession in 2001 where it peaked at 6.3 percent in June 2003.

So far this year, 1.2 million jobs have disappeared.

The employment market is much weaker than economists expected. Economists were expecting the unemployment rate to climb to 6.3 percent and for job losses to fall by around 200,000.

"The U.S. recession is deepening," said Michael Gregory, economist at BMO Capital Markets Economics. The final quarter of this year is getting off to a "particularly ugly" start, he said.

Many expect the unemployment rate to climb to 8 percent (and maybe higher) next year. In the 1980-1982 recession, the unemployment rate was as high as 10.8 %.

Thursday, November 6, 2008

10% haircut in 2 days

Another 450 point plus drop. Worst 2 day drop since the crash of 87. DOW closed at 8695.

Its like October all over again.

Everything is in the toilet.

Death spiral watch- GS. Closed at $80.72 (-7.6%)

Wednesday, November 5, 2008

Obama wins!

Market crashes!

Down almost 500 points. The slide halted an 18% rebound from the S&P 500's five-year low on Oct. 27.

Financial's led the downward charge. C lost almost 15% (-$2.05) to close at $12.63.

Thursday, October 30, 2008

FAF takes a dump

FAF announced 3rd quarter earnings this morning and announced an $8.9 million dollar loss (or -$.09 per share). Analysts were expecting a profit of $.40 a share! Talk about getting blown out of the water.

Revenue fell 26% percent from $1.51 billion from $2.05 billion in last year's third quarter.

Investment losses totaled $29.6 million, or 32 cents per share! WTF are they doing? This is not a mutual fund.

FAF's title and services segment eliminated about 1,250 jobs in the third quarter, which is expected to yield annual savings of nearly $66 million

The information solutions segment posted revenue of $515.2 million, a 10 percent decrease from $574.3 million in last year's third quarter.

FAF closed down -$1.24 (-5.85%) to close at $19.96.

The market had a good day and closed up 189 points.

Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Dow gives up 290 points in final 15 minutes

Nice day in the market- until the final 15 minutes! This market loves to dive right before close. Dow ended down 76 points but was positive for most of the day as the FED, as expected, cut the federal funds rate a half a point to 1%.

Watch list-
CHK $20.65
X $35.37
AA $11.15

FAF announces earnings tomorrow.

CA Median Home Prices down 47% from peak

The speed and depth of the drop in CA real estate is simply amazing. These declines have occurred in roughly 18 months! I expect values to drop further as foreclosures continue to rise and banks refuse to lend to all but to the best customer (with large down payments). The next year will be interesting especially as the ALT A paper starts to default.

Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Huge rally!

More EXTREME volatitlity today as the market gained almost 900 points for the 2nd largest point gain ever. Dow closed at over 9000. S&P was up almost 11%.

Out of 20 trading days this month, there have been only two that didn't see the Dow close up or down in triple digits.

The market is expecting the fed to cut rates again tommorrow. The market looked past the news of the consumer confidence index recording a record low.

CAKE was down 4.5% to close at $7.99. Looks like I tried to catch a falling knife on that one and its about to cut off my hand. 20% haircut in roughly 2 weeks.

Monday, October 27, 2008

Another 200 point drop

Just another day. Panic selling continues. Valuations have been thrown out the window. Dividend yields are getting high.

GE- $17.7. 7% yield. PE 8.7
X- $30.82. PE 3
AA- $9.04. 7.2% yield. PE 4.28
CAT- $31.90. 5% yield. PE 5.4
BBY- $21.50. PE 6.8
Exxon- $66. PE 8.18
AXP- $23. PE 8.18
MOS- $26.50. PE 3.99
POT- $63.88. PE 6.67
GS- $92.88. PE 5.58

HTE- $7.69. 37.2% yield!

I will probaly look back at this post in the future and will not believe how cheap these stocks are right now.

When you go to the supermarket and see that Pepsi is on sale for 20% off, do you think to yourself, heck I'm not going to buy Pepsi again until they raise the price? The stock market is not different.

When you hear, the stock market is at a new high, that is a time to sell. If you hear the stock market is down 30%, that is the time to buy.

Sunday, October 26, 2008

Showdown in Sac Town= Letdown

Well, I got back from the contest today. It was a very disappointing showing for me. Weighed in at roughly 216. My nerves were definetly kicking in.

Yoke/ power stair- did ok on the Yoke. Dropped it once but quickly recovered. Tried to load the first power stair (350) and it was heavy! Was able to finally get it on the platform. Switched my grip to over/ under and the second one went easier. The third one went also. Ran back down the stairs to hit the 400 lb implement. No go. This was really heavy. Finished mid pack on this one. Was pretty disappointed.

Overhead medley- started with the Axl- went right up. Ran over to the keg (175)- could not lock it out. Fuk! Tried it again- nope. Ran over to the 120 "dumblog"- got it. Went back to the keg for one more try. Nope. Finished towards the bottom on this one. If I had gotten the keg, I would have finished 3rd or 4th (like my plan going into this event). I was VERY disappointed after this event.

Deadlift- 455 axl- was still upset after the 2 previous events but know I still could win this event. Firts rep- slipped out of my hand at lockout- no rep. Fuk!. 2nd rep- same thing. Re-chalked and got into the groove. Hit 7-8 in a row. More chalk. Hit a couple more. Thought I had 11 (and tied for 1st so far). Went for one more to win- couldn't lock it. No rep. Learned that they did not give me one of the reps. Gave me 10. Terrible! I hit an easy 11 in training with more weight. I think 13 or 14 won it. This contest is turning into a disaster.

Prowler/ Farmers medley- my 2nd best event (I thought). Ran against my training partner Scott who I was beating in training. Prowler is allot different then the truck push we were doing. I was not that fast. I had my arms extended on the prowler - even though I know I should have them bent Got to the farmers and picked it up- slipped out of my hands! I looked at my hand and had ripped a callous. Memories of Fresno Pro Am were flying through my head. I re-chalked, gripped it and fought all my might to finish the 50 ft. I had a bad time, but I finished it with the ripped callous. I guess this could be a moral victory.

Last event (thank god)- Fingal finger/ load medley. I was very tired going into this and just wanted the contest to be over. It was now around 4 and the contest had started at 10:30 (I had been out there since 9am). It was also very hot and sunny all day. I felt physically nauseous. First load was a fire hydrant- messed u a bit but quickly recovered and load. Ran to 1st finger and it went up easily. 2nd load was around a 300ish keg- went up easily (the platforms were short barrels). 2nd finger went up also. 3rd load was a 250ish sand bag. Not too much of a problem. On to the last finger. This was heavy. Fought with it to get it halfway up. My legs and arms gave in and I dropped it.

Finished 5th overall out of 10? Sean finished 2nd (by 1.2 point). Scott also finished 2nd. The 4 guys that beat me- really beat me. It was not close.

Things that I learned-
1) I am way way way to hard on myself. When things start going bad, I shell up and have a terrible attitude. I need to lighten up a little.
2) I don't carry enough size to compete with the better 231's. I was giving up 15-20 lbs.
3)My upper body strength is lacking. No excuse for not being able to hit a 175 keg (or a 260 log for that matter) on my worst day!
4)I have not been training hard enough on Saturdays. Both my partners told me this.

So now I have 3 choices-
1)give up on strongman and move on to other things.
2)continue as I have been going and be ready for mid-pack placings.
3)Use this as a wake up call for my training and workouts.

I sit here and am not sure which choice I will make.

God I want this month to end.

Thursday, October 23, 2008

FAF hits new lows

FAF was off $2.78 (over 13% to close at a new 52 week low of $18.29. It was down over 20% before a late afternoon "rally".

The entire Title segment got destroyed as Fidelity announced a huge 3rd quarter loss after setting aside $261.6 million in reserves. They also cut their dividend in half, announced 1,000 job cuts, and an across the board 10% pay cut.

Shares of other title insurers fell Thursday to their lowest levels since at least 2000.

The carnage- Land America down $3.23, or 26.3 percent, to $9.07, and Stewart Information Services Corp down $3.34, or 18.3 percent, to $14.96.

FNF closed down 58 cents, or 6.4 percent, at $8.44.

The market was down for most of the day (traded in 550 range) before a late afternoon rally and closed up 172 points.

Greenspan speaks

Alan Greenspan testified on Capital Hill today. He denied blame for the crisis but but conceded the meltdown had revealed a flaw in a lifetime of economic thinking and left him in a "state of shocked disbelief."

He called the crisis a "once-in-a-century credit tsunami". He also warned that things would get worse before they get better, with rising unemployment and no stabilization in housing prices for "many months".

It was his policy of artificially low interest rates that led to the speculative bubble.

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

CAKE and C downgraded

And the hits keep on coming! These stocks have been destroyed. Where is the mercy rule?? CAKE does not have any toxic mortgages on it's balance sheet!

CAKE dropped over 6% on an analyst downgrade to close at $9.82.

Cown & Co. analyst Paul Westra cut his rating to "Neutral" from "Outperform" and said the stock will probably trade "in line with the market over the next six months.

They announce earnings on Thursday.

C also dropped a little over 6% on a Goldman Sachs downgrade to close at $14.18.

Goldman analyst reversed his call from a month ago, when he upgraded Citi to "Neutral," and removed it from his "Conviction Sell List," a group of stocks the investment bank advises against holding.

"We believe it will be difficult for Citi to generate profitability over the next 12 months as additional write-downs, lower levels of capital markets activity, and further deterioration in credit quality trends will continue to weigh on the firm's operating results and capital ratios," Tanona wrote in a note to clients Tuesday.

They also slashed their price target on the shares by half, to $11, from the $22 they set last month.

The analyst also recommended buying Morgan Stanley and shorting Citi.

The market closed down 230 points (2.5%). S&P down 3%. NASDAQ down 4%.

Monday, October 20, 2008

+413 points

Nice day in the market. Closed above 9000 (9265).

Did we hit the bottom last week on Oct 10?

AMEX announced earnings tonight and beat estimates. Their profit did drop more then 20% (but we all know that does not matter- it's already priced in).

Friday, October 17, 2008

Open Letter from Warren Buffett

Appeared yesterday in the NY Times:

"THE financial world is a mess, both in the United States and abroad. Its problems, moreover, have been leaking into the general economy, and the leaks are now turning into a gusher. In the near term, unemployment will rise, business activity will falter and headlines will continue to be scary.

So ... I’ve been buying American stocks. This is my personal account I’m talking about, in which I previously owned nothing but United States government bonds. (This description leaves aside my Berkshire Hathaway holdings, which are all committed to philanthropy.) If prices keep looking attractive, my non-Berkshire net worth will soon be 100 percent in United States equities.


A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. And most certainly, fear is now widespread, gripping even seasoned investors. To be sure, investors are right to be wary of highly leveraged entities or businesses in weak competitive positions. But fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nation’s many sound companies make no sense. These businesses will indeed suffer earnings hiccups, as they always have. But most major companies will be setting new profit records 5, 10 and 20 years from now.

Let me be clear on one point: I can’t predict the short-term movements of the stock market. I haven’t the faintest idea as to whether stocks will be higher or lower a month — or a year — from now. What is likely, however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so, well before either sentiment or the economy turns up. So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over.

A little history here: During the Depression, the Dow hit its low, 41, on July 8, 1932. Economic conditions, though, kept deteriorating until Franklin D. Roosevelt took office in March 1933. By that time, the market had already advanced 30 percent. Or think back to the early days of World War II, when things were going badly for the United States in Europe and the Pacific. The market hit bottom in April 1942, well before Allied fortunes turned. Again, in the early 1980s, the time to buy stocks was when inflation raged and the economy was in the tank. In short, bad news is an investor’s best friend. It lets you buy a slice of America’s future at a marked-down price.

Over the long term, the stock market news will be good. In the 20th century, the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a flu epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497.

You might think it would have been impossible for an investor to lose money during a century marked by such an extraordinary gain. But some investors did. The hapless ones bought stocks only when they felt comfort in doing so and then proceeded to sell when the headlines made them queasy.

Today people who hold cash equivalents feel comfortable. They shouldn’t. They have opted for a terrible long-term asset, one that pays virtually nothing and is certain to depreciate in value. Indeed, the policies that government will follow in its efforts to alleviate the current crisis will probably prove inflationary and therefore accelerate declines in the real value of cash accounts.

Equities will almost certainly outperform cash over the next decade, probably by a substantial degree. Those investors who cling now to cash are betting they can efficiently time their move away from it later. In waiting for the comfort of good news, they are ignoring Wayne Gretzky’s advice: “I skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it has been.”

I don’t like to opine on the stock market, and again I emphasize that I have no idea what the market will do in the short term. Nevertheless, I’ll follow the lead of a restaurant that opened in an empty bank building and then advertised: “Put your mouth where your money was.” Today my money and my mouth both say equities.

Interesting, easy 401K investment strategy

Picked this up from another site-

The following course of action is doable by most investors reading on this forum, if they have a 401K. Let's say you have access to three different actively managed capital appreciation goal mutual funds. You select one to start to invest in. You begin biweekly investing. You use the computer and about monthly or quarterly on Yahoo Finance, use "compare" charts with your fund, the other funds and the S&P 500. If your fund is lagging over a quarter or half year, why stay with it? Switch to a better performing one. No tax involved...just the click of a mouse. Don't want to switch, then change your payroll deductions to the best performing fund and continue from there.

In addition, anytime you read, see or hear that the stock market is hitting new highs...records being set, and everyone discussing how much money they are making, go down to your employee relations office and change your future payroll deductions to be anywhere from 50 to 100% bond funds.

And when you hear that the stock market is down 10% or more, switch payroll deductions back to 100% stock mutual funds. Furthermore, if you hear we are in a bear market, down 20% or more (like now), switch your current bond fund holdings to stock mutual funds, if your portfolio is $100,000 or less. If your portfolio is from $100,000 to $200,000, switch 50% of your bond holdings to stock funds. Above $200,000, reallocate per your portfolio allocation plan, biased towards high end for stock fund holdings.

This is perhaps a way of incorporating Jack Bogle's words of "caution" we hear at certain market peaks...and Warren Buffets advisory's regarding buying 100% equities at market lower points.

Thursday, October 16, 2008

Market Rally

Another tremendously volatile as the Dow ended up 400 points (+4.68%), after falling 380 early in the session.

Citi announced earnings and suffered its fourth straight quarterly loss. It also forfeited the title of largest U.S. bank by assets and is falling behind in the reshuffling of the U.S. banking system.

It lost $2.8 billion- 60 cents per share- in the third quarter, compared with a profit of $2.2 billion, or 44 cents per share, a year ago. The deficit for the July-to-September period brings Citi's total losses over the past 12 months to $20.2 billion. It closed down about 2% to $15.90.

FAF closed down $1 to a new 52 week low of $20.50. It has gone from $33 to $20 in less then a month. Talk about a haircut. It has to be institutions dumping the shares. It paid its $.22 per share dividend yesterday.

SHLD continues to falter. It did not participate in todays rally and is expensive with a P/E of 18.55. Closed at $60.87. I do not have confidence in this stock/ company and should sell. I believe it drops further from here.

$150 went into JSVAX yesterday.

Showdown in Sac Town

Finally booked my ticket to my comeback show today- Showdown in Sac Town - next weekend in Sacramento. Its a gold level show. This is my comeback show and first show since winning North Bay in summer 2007.

The events:
-Yoke/ power stair medley. 600lb Yoke for 50ft followed by power stairs. 350 up 3 steps (supposedly high steps), 400 up 3 steps. Being taller will be an advantage. I should do well in this event. Top 3.

-Overhead medley. 4 implements- 120lb "dumb log", 180lb keg, 240lb axl, 260lb log. My worst event. I probably wont even try the log. If it's a real 260, out of my range. I will get the other 3 fast and should beat everyone that does not get all 4 lifts.

-Axl deadlift for reps. 60 sec. 450lbs. Hit 11 w/ 465 in training 2 weeks ago. Good chance to win this.

-Prowlers push/ farmers medley. 50 ft prowler. 50 ft farmers w/ 260. I should win this. I have been very very good in training. We simulated the prowler by pushing a truck. Have been doing 275 farmers. I think I finished in 32 secs last weekend beating 2 lightweight Pro's.

-Fingal finger/ odd object load- aka Circle of Death! 3 fingers. 1 sandbag and 2 kegs loaded to platform. I should do well in this event as well. I have never done fingal fingers, but being taller w/ long arms will be an advantage.

I should have a good show. I am in decent strongman shape but a little light. I am weighing around 217-218 and will be giving up weight to some of the 231's that cut to make weight. Oh well, it will be fun, a chance to compete, hang out with a good group of guys, and I have a good shot to win it.

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Bought some CAKE

I pulled the trigger on CAKE late this afternoon right before the market closed. Hopefully I did not try to catch a falling knife. Time will tell.

500 shares @ $9.98.

Opened today at $10.73.

Closed at $9.91.

I will most likely sell into the next big rally.

I also have my eye on American Express.
-closed at $24.41
-down 13.4% today
-PE of 8.09
-$17.90 cash per share

One of my favorite quotes

I sent this out to some of my friends today. It is reassuring even in today's financial crisis-

Most people are poor because when it comes to investing, the world is filled with Chicken Littles running around yelling, "The sky is falling. The sky is falling." And Chicken Littles are effective because everyone of us is a little chicken. It often takes great courage to not let rumors and talk of doom and gloom affect your doubts and fears.

Do you know Why consumers will always be poor. when the supermarket has a sale on say toilet paper, the consumer runs in and stocks up. When the stock market has a has sale, most often called a crash or correction, the consumer runs away from it. When the supermarket raises its prices, the consumer shops elsewhere. When the stock market raises its prices, the consumer starts buying.

Biggest plunge since crash of 1987

Today's doom and gloom headlines:

-S&P loses 9.1%.

-Dow drop more then 700 points.

-2nd biggest DOW drop on record (Biggest was last week).

-Dow down 10 of last 11 days.

-Talk of global recession fears increasing. What? WE have been in a recession for 6 -months!

-Monday's rebound just about gone.

-Grim sales data knocks consumer stocks.

-Retail sales data drops most in 3 years.

-Selling accelerated in final hour.

-Oil drops to $75.

-Exxon plunges 14%, Morgan Stanley loses 16%, Citi drops 13%

The nightmare continues.

Tuesday, October 14, 2008


Goldman Sachs downgraded CAKE for the 2nd time this month. Earlier this month, they downgraded the entire upscale casual restraunt group. Today, they lowered their price target to $14. This sent the already beaten down stock down almost 8% to $10.80. It is now trading at 8 year lows.

I think the stock has been unfairly punished.

Oil is down big. It closed at less then $80 a barrel today (it was at $147 in July). Gas is getting cheaper and has dropped $.35 in the past 2 weeks- the fastest drop on record.

CAKE was punished as oil rose up in price. The market thought people could not afford to go out to eat as the price of gas was eating into their disposable income. CAKE has not seen any advance as the price of gas has come down. It has been discounted on the rise of oil/gas but has not been rewarded in the decline of oil/gas.

PE 11.48
Book Value per share $7.875 (Price/ Book Value 1.49)
Price/ Cash Flow 5.30

Currently I own shares at @ $24. OUCH

I think this could be a play over the next 2 months. Good for a $2-$3 pop.

Monday, October 13, 2008

Market Rally

+ 936 points.

-Biggest point gain in The Dow ever.
-Dow gain of 11%, 5th biggest ever.
-best rally since 1933.

This brings us back to where the market was Wednesday October 8.

Oh and GE was down.

Thursday, October 9, 2008

Investment Clock

Time to buy growth stocks? If we've turned the corner from a economic slowdown to a recession the answer is yes.

Changes announced at work

Radical cost cutting measures have began at work.

Today, when I got my coffee, there was a sign on the coffee machine- "Effective October 21, there will be no more KCups". "We are going back to the old drip coffee". yummmm. One of the pleasures of work is the good coffee. Not anymore.

The hand soap dispensers have been ripped off all the break rooms so I can assume no more soap to wash our hands. I noticed this a few days ago and thought it was an angry employee. I don't think that's the case anymore.

Finally, we also learned that the company will no longer be putting oderizers in the bathrooms. I guess since the economy stinks, so will the employees.

Groundhog Day and more carnage

I feel like we are in the movie Ground Hog Day. Repeat performance of every other day this month. 6th straight triple digit loss in the DOW.

I left for lunch today with the market being down 50 points or so. I get back and it is down over 600 points. It closed down 679. I felt physically ill.

Highlights (or lowlights):
GM lost 31% to close at $4.76- the lowest level since 1950.
FAF down almost 8! 27% loss in one day.
LFG down 37% to close at $12.85

All my positions- destroyed.

My Etrade account has to be down over 50%.

The carnage-
EGLRX $14.36
JSVAX $10.80
HFCGX $8.47
IGLIX $12.42
CAKE $10.90
SHLD $67.31
FAF $21.52
RAD $.52!!!!
C $12.93 (and they gave up on their bid to Wachovia- Wells is taking it)

GE $19.06 (and they announce 3rd quarter earnings tomorrow)

I have not checked my 401k. I do not want to get sick.

I went to the track after work and ran myself into the ground.

At least I have my health

Wednesday, October 8, 2008

Global Rate Cut, Market Still Tumbles

As rumored, The Fed cut rates by .5%.

Also, in an unprecedented coordinated move, central banks in England, China, Canada, Sweden and Switzerland and the European Central Bank also cut rates.

The market still closed down close to 200 points.

1600 points chopped off the past 6 days.

All of the talk in the media is of the market crisis. "Historic...unprecedented...First time ever..major recession". Such hyperbole.

Watch for a big market rally tomorrow. IBM announced earnings a week early tonight- they beat Wall Street's forecast by 4 cents.

Tuesday, October 7, 2008

Free Fall

Market continued to plunge dropping 508 points today after dropping 370 points yesterday.

Market closed at 9,447 and has dropped a little over 1400 points the last 5 days.

The S&P 500's 15 percent retreat since Sept. 30 is the third-steepest five-day drop on record.

So far this year, the S&P has tumbled 32 percent in the market's worst yearly slump since 1937.

``We've approached the edge of the cliff,'' Leon Cooperman, 65, who manages $6 billion at hedge fund Omega Advisors Inc., said at the Value Investing Congress in New York. ``Do we go over the cliff or begin to recede? History says we recede, but there's no guarantee. This is the most difficult financial environment I've lived through.''

There is hints that the FED may be cutting interest rates soon. The market ignored these hints as panic and selling continued.

In other news- had a good workout at the track. Ran 10 TEMPOs at 70-80%.

Saturday, October 4, 2008

Bailout passes

Congress passed th $700 Billion bailout yesterday. Surprisingly, the market quickly dropped 450 points ending the day with a loss of 157.

Thank god this week is over.

The DOW opened this week at 11,431 and closed on Friday at 10,325. UGLY

C lost 18.44% (-$4.15) as Wells Fargo announced they are buying Wachovia thus bumping C's takeover attempt off the table.

Thursday, October 2, 2008


BBY - down 5% today. 52 week low of $34.40. In 2 plus years of watching this stock, I have never seen it this low. This is a well run, good company. PE of 10.8. Forward PE of 9.7.

I sold on 8/11 at $45.85. Its is down 25% since then.

Could the market be predicting a very poor Christmas thus severly pounding the stock?

This is a BUY. BTW- tmmrw is Ex Dividend date.

MOS- down 41.27% today! Closed at $39.65. This stock was $160 in June.

MOS makes fertilizer and credit concerns (especially in Latin America) along with a slow down in the global economy are crushing this stock.

MOS widely missed Wall Street expectations and an analyst downgraded the shares.

For the period ending Aug. 31, Mosaic earned $1.18 billion, or $2.65 per share on revenue of $4.32 billion. Analysts expected a higher profit of $2.94 per share on revenue of $4.11 billion.

PE of 8.5. Forward PE of 2.35!

AAPL- closed at $100.10. Down $9 today- about 8%.

Apple was trading in the $170's in August!

PE of 19.5. Forward PE of 16.85

Is this entering value play territory?

I will revist these in the future.

Market Update

Another disaster in the market. Dow down 348 (3.22%) to close at 10,482. S&P was down 4.03%. NASDAQ down 4.48%. The market is down or up triple digits everyday. Mostly down.

FAF got hammered- off 10% to close at $27.25 (down over $3).

GE got pounded also- off 9.5% to close at 5 1/2 yr low. GE sold $3 Billion worth of preferred stock to Warren Buffett on Wednesday at a price of $22.25 per share. Today, they announced a secondary offering of $9 billion worth of shares at a discounted price of $22.25 (same price given to Buffett yesterday). GE closed at $24.50 yesterday. The market quickly reacted to the secondary discounted offering bringing the shares down to close at $22.15. Way to go management! Way to think of the shareholders! horrible.

Congress votes tommorrow on the $700 Billion bailout bill tommorrow. It is expected to pass this time.

Some interesting quotes I read from Warren Buffett today describing the state of the economy:

"This really is an economic Pearl Harbor,"
Buffett said. "That sounds melodramatic, but I've never used that phrase before. And this really is one."

"In my adult lifetime, I don't think I've ever seen people as fearful economically as they are now."

He's hoping for the Bailout to be passed tommorrow-

If Congress doesn't approve the bailout plan soon, then "I will have done some dumb things."

In good news, I closed a $4500 deal today at work. Loan Modification company.

Tuesday, April 29, 2008

Real Estate thoughts

I think it may be my time to start really looking at buying property within the next 6-12 months. In the SoCal market, while still high, anything and everything is on sale.

Prices are reverting back to 2003 rollbacks.

People are simply walking away from their properties. Handing the keys to the lender. These are comp killers driving the market lower.

This coupled with the fact that interest rates are still at very low levels means opportunity.

As Warren Buffett says:

We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful.

Saturday, April 26, 2008

Today's workout

Strongman training-

I have been taking it easy and really trying not to aggravate my bicep. I have been skipping allot of the events.

12" log - clean and press each rep. 235/ 4 in 1:15.
-Hit 3 in less then 60 seconds. Bicep bothering me a little on these.

Yoke- 540/ 50ft, 620/ 50ft, 670/ 40ft
-back felt good

tire drags- 200+tire/ 50 ft x 2 sets
-heavy drag!

My weight is around 222. I have been making good upper body gains in the gym. Hit a big PR on Monday. Hit 265+ bands on the overhead.

My back is also feeling better. It has been jacked up for as long as I remember.


This is my first post in quite a while.

Since my last past, I ruptured my bicep while training for nationals (missed nationals), spent 3 weeks in Central America, and almost took another job selling computer security software.

I ruptured my bicep shortly after my last post. I got sloppy during the tire flip (900 lb tire) and felt a pop in my right bicep. Unfortunately (dumb move), I did not get it treated immediately.

Over the past 2 months, I got an MRI and have seen 2 specialist. The first orthopedic thought I may be too late for surgery and said my right arm would never be 100% again. He said I would have 65%-75% strength in the arm. My bicep, while not a complete tear, did tear somewhat and since I did not get it fixed, it reattached (but in a weakened state). He said surgery could be an option but they would have to cut out another tendon (knee) to replace the bicep tendon. I thought this was a terrible idea.

The second specialist (who specializes in arm injuries) recommended I stop lifting any weights for the next 6 months after which he could reevaluate and could determine if he could operate. I also thought this was a terrible idea and told him I would not stop lifting weights. We compromised and I am not doing any pulling/ curling movements. He also gave me a script for a daily anti-inflammatory which I have been taking. It has been working. My bicep is not nearly as achy as it used to be and it seems to be getting better. I have a follow up appointment middle of next month.